DAVID L. KELLY

Department of Economics
University of Miami
Coral Gables,   FL   33124-6550   USA
(305) 284-3725
dkelly@miami.edu
http://moya.bus.miami.edu/~dkelly

Research Interests

Teaching Interests

Environmental economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics.

Experience

May 2012 - Present Professor, Department of Economics, University of Miami.
May 2003 - May 2012 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Miami.
August 2005 - August 2008 Chair, Department of Economics, University of Miami.
August 1998 - May 2003 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, University of Miami.
July 1996 - July 1998 Visiting Assistant Professor, University of California at Santa Barbara.
May 1995 - July 1998 Postdoctoral Researcher. Department of Economics, University of California at Santa Barbara.
July 1996 - July 1997 Visiting Assistant Professor.  Department of Environmental Science and Management, University of California at Santa Barbara.
August 1994-May 1995 Visiting Assistant Professor of Economics. Graduate School of Industrial Administration, Carnegie Mellon University.

EDUCATION

Ph.D., Economics.
        Graduate School of Industrial Administration, Carnegie Mellon University, received May, 1995.

M.S., Economics.
        Graduate School of Industrial Administration, Carnegie Mellon University, 1991.

B.S., Honors in Mathematical Economics.
        Wake Forest University, 1989.

PUBLICATIONS

Fitzpatrick, Luke and David L. Kelly, "Probabilistic Stabilization Targets," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 4(3):611-57 (June 2017).

Raphael Boleslavsky, David L. Kelly, and Curtis R. Taylor, "Selloffs, Bailouts, and Feedback: Can Asset Markets Inform Policy?", Journal of Economic Theory, 169:294-343 (May 2017).

M. Burke, M. Craxton, C. D. Kolstad, C. Onda, H. Allcott, E. Baker, L. Barrage, R. Carson, K. Gillingham, J. Graff-Zivin, M. Greenstone, S. Hallegatte, W. M. Hanemann, G. Heal, S Hsiang, B. Jones, David L. Kelly, R. Kopp, M. Kotchen, R. Mendelsohn, K. Meng, G. Metcalf, J. Moreno-Cruz, R. Pindyck, S. Rose, I. Rudik, J. Stock, R. S. J. Tol, " Opportunities for Advances in Climate Change Economics," Science, 352(6283):292-293 (15 April 2016).

Garth Heutel and David L. Kelly, "Incidence and Environmental Effects of Distortionary Subsidies," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 3(2):361-415 (June 2016).

David L. Kelly and Zhuo Tan, "Learning and Climate Feedbacks: Optimal Climate Insurance and Fat Tails ," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 72:98-122 (2015).

Raphael Boleslavsky and David L. Kelly, "Dynamic Regulation Without Payments: The Importance of Timing," Journal of Public Economics, 120:169-180 (December 2014).

Luca Bossi, Pere Gomis-Porqueras, and David L. Kelly, "Optimal Second Best Taxation of Addictive Goods," B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics (Advances), 14(1):75-118 (2014).

Claustre Bajona and David L. Kelly, "Trade and the Environment With Pre-Existing Subsidies: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 64(2):253-78 (2012).

David L. Kelly, David Letson, Forrest Nelson, David Nolan, and Daniel Solis, "Evolution of Subjective Hurricane Risk Perceptions: A Bayesian Approach," Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 81(2):644-63 (2012).

Sherry Bartz and David L. Kelly, "Economic Growth and the Environment: Theory and Facts," Resource and Energy Economics, 30:115-49 (2008).

Kelly, David L. and Stephen F. LeRoy, "Liquidity and Liquidation," Economic Theory, 31(3):553-572 (2007).

Kelly, David L., Charles D. Kolstad, and Glenn T. Mitchell, "Adjustment Costs From Environmental Change,"   Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 50(3):468-495 (2005).

Kelly, David L., "Price and Quantity Regulation in General Equilibrium,"   Journal of Economic Theory, 125(1):36-60 (2005).

Kelly, David L. and Stephen F. Leroy, "Liquidity and Fire Sales,"   in Jon Faust, Athanasios Orphanides and David Reifschneider, eds., Models and Monetary Policy: Research in Tradition of Dale Henderson, Richard Porter, and Peter Tinsley, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, pp. 249-270 (2005).

Kelly, David L. and Douglas G. Steigerwald, "Private Information and High Frequency Stochastic Volatility,"   Studies in Non-Linear Dynamics and Econometrics, 8(1):1-28 (2004). Lead article.

Kelly, David L. "On Environmental Kuznets Curves Arising From Stock Externalities,"   Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 27(8):1367-90 (2003).

Kelly, David L. and Jamsheed Shorish, "Stability of Functional Rational Expectations Equilibria,"   Journal of Economic Theory, 95(2):215-250 (December 2000).

Kelly, David L. and Charles D. Kolstad, "Solving Infinite Horizon Growth Models With an Environmental Sector,"   Computational Economics, 18:217-231 (2001).

Kelly, David L. and Charles D. Kolstad, "Malthus and Climate: Betting on a Stable Population,"   Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 41:135-161 (2001). Lead article.

Kelly, David L. and Charles D. Kolstad, "Bayesian Learning, Pollution, and Growth,"   Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 23(4):491-518 (February 1999). Lead article.

Goenka, Aditya, David L. Kelly, and Stephen E. Spear, "Endogenous Strategic Business Cycles, "   Journal of Economic Theory, 81(1):97-125 (July 1998).

Kelly, David L. and Charles D. Kolstad, "Integrated Assessment Models for Climate Change Control,"   in Henk Folmer and Tom Tietenberg, Editors International Yearbook of Environmental and Resource Economics 1999/2000: A Survey of Current Issues Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar (1999).

Kelly, David L. and Charles D. Kolstad, "The Climate Change Footprint: Will We See it Before it is Upon Us?"  In Nakicenovic, N., W.D. Nordhaus, R. Richels, F.L. Toth Editors, Climate Change: Integrating Science, Economics, and Policy, WP-96-135, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria (1996).
 

Book Reviews

Kelly, David L., "The United States in a Warming World: The Political Economy of Government, Business, and Public Responses to Climate Change" Journal of Economic Literature, 53(3):685-87 (2015).

Kelly, David L., "Capitalism, Socialism, and the Environment," Nature and Culture, 8(2):226-36 (Summer 2013).

Kelly, David L., "Review: Plowshares and Pork Barrels: The Political Economy of Agriculture," Bulletin of Marine Science, 79(2):425-7 (September 2006).

Other Publications

McCullough, Michael and David L. Kelly, "Reproducibility: A Trading Scheme to Reduce False Results, " Nature, 508:319 (April 17, 2014).

Working Papers

Boleslavsky, Raphael, Christopher Hennessy, and David L. Kelly, 2017, "Markets vs. Mechanisms," University of Miami Working Paper.

Marc N. Conte and David L. Kelly, 2017, "An Imperfect Storm: Fat-Tailed Hurricane Damages, Insurance, and Climate Policy," forthcoming at Journal of Environmental Economics and Management.

David L. Kelly, 2006, "Subsidies to Industry and the Environment," University of Miami Working Paper number 2006-2.

David L. Kelly, 2000, "Unit Roots in the Climate: Is the Recent Warming Due to Persistent Shocks?," University of Miami Working Paper.

David L. Kelly, Charles D. Kolstad, Michael Schlesinger, and Natalia Andronova, 1998, "Learning About Climate Sensitivity From the Instrumental Temperature Record," University of Miami Working Paper.

David L. Kelly, 1994, "Valuing and Hedging American Put Options Using Neural Networks," University of Miami Working Paper.

David L. Kelly, 1995, "Training Expectations With Least Squares Learning in Non-Linear Self-Referential Models," University of Miami Working Paper.
 

FUNDED RESEARCH

2011 Provost's Research Award: "Dynamic Regulation Without Payments: Timing is Everything".
2010 US Department of Education, Center for Competitiveness of US Services for Prosperity and Sustainability, International Environmental Sustainability: "Incidence of Bailouts and Subsidies" and "The Impact of Reduced Trade Barriers on the Environment"
2006 University of Miami School of Business Grant (with David Letson and David Nolan), "Hurricane Event Markets."
2005 Center For Ecosystem Science and Policy Seed Grant (with David Letson and David Nolan), "Hurricane Event Markets."
2002 James W. McLamore Summer Award: "Adjustment Costs, Incomplete Information, and Learning."
2001 James W. McLamore Summer Award: "Dynamic Differences in Price and Quantity Regulation."
1999 James W. McLamore Summer Award: "Stochastic Volatility and Asset Prices."
1996-7 DOE research grant to study uncertainty and learning about damages from climate change (with Charles Kolstad).
1996-7 USDA research grant to study climate change impacts on US agriculture (with Charles Kolstad and David Schimmelpfennig).
 

AWARDS

Excellence in Research Award, University of Miami School of Business, August 2000.

William Larimer Mellon Fellowship, 1989-1992.
 

REFEREED CONFERENCES AND INVITED SEMINARS

2016 Invited Seminar, Maastricht University: "An Imperfect Storm: FEMA, Insurance, and Climate Change."
2016 AERE Summer Conference: "Optimal Experimentation with Geo-Engineering"
2015 Conference on the Research Frontiers in the Economics of Climate Change, Stanford University: "Learning and Uncertainty in Climate Change Economics: What Have we Learned and What is Uncertain?"
2015 AERE Summer Conference: "Learning, Fat-Tailed Uncertainty and Irreversible Green Capital Investment."
2015 AERE Summer Conference: "An Imperfect Storm: FEMA, Insurance, and Climate Change."
2015 Invited Seminar, Georgia State University: "An Imperfect Storm: How FEMA, Private Hurricane Insurers, and Climate Change Can Create Inefficient Coastal Housing Markets and Impose a Burden on Inland Taxpayers".
2015 Annual Meeting of the American Economics Association: "An Imperfect Storm: How FEMA, Private Hurricane Insurers, and Climate Change Can Create Inefficient Coastal Housing Markets and Impose a Burden on Inland Taxpayers".
2014 Invited Seminar, University of California at Davis: "The Welfare Cost of Stabilization Targets".
2014 Invited Seminar, University of California at Berkeley: "The Welfare Cost of Stabilization Targets".
2013 Invited Seminar, Fordham University: "The Welfare Cost of Stabilization Targets".
2013 Fourteenth Occasional Workshop on Environmental and Resource Economics: "Optimal Probabilistic Stabilization Targets".
2013 Invited Seminar, University of Arizona: "Dynamic Regulation Without Payments: Timing is Everything".
2012 AERE Summer Conference: "Learning, Growth, and Climate Feedbacks: Does the Fat Tail Wag the Dog?".
2012 Invited Seminar, University of Stavanger: "Learning, Growth, and Climate Feedbacks: Does the Fat Tail Wag the Dog?".
2012 Invited Seminar, University of Notre Dame: "Learning, Growth, and Climate Feedbacks: Does the Fat Tail Wag the Dog?".
2012 Thirteenth Occasional California Workshop on Environmental and Resource Economics: "Learning, Growth, and Climate Feedbacks: Does the Fat Tail Wag the Dog?".
2011 AERE Summer Conference: "Dynamic Regulation Without Payments: Timing is Everything".
2009 Conference on Uncertainty and Learning in the Management of Environmental and Resource Economics, University of California at Santa Barbara: "Evolution of Subjective Hurricane Risk Perceptions: A Bayesian Approach".
2009 Eleventh Occasional California Workshop on Environmental and Resource Economics: "Evolution of Subjective Hurricane Risk Perceptions: A Bayesian Approach".
2009 Latin American Meeting of the Econometric Society: "Optimal Second Best Taxation of Addictive Goods in Dynamic General Equilibrium".
2008 Invited Seminar, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton Center for Risk Management: "Evolution of Subjective Hurricane Risk Perceptions: A Bayesian Approach".
2007 Ninth Occasional California Workshop on Environmental and Natural Resource Economics: "Subsidies to Industry and the Environment".
2007 National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute: "Subsidies to Industry and the Environment".
2007 Invited Seminar, Concordia University: "Subsidies to Industry and the Environment".
2007 Invited Seminar, Ryerson University: "Subsidies to Industry and the Environment".
 

Refereed Conferences Prior to 2007:

Occasional California Workshop on Environmental and Resource Economics (1996, 2001, 2005), National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute (2001), Econometric Society Meetings (1998), Neural Networks in the Capital Markets (1994), Richard M. Cyert Honorary Conference (1993).

Invited Seminars Prior to 2007:

University of Aarhus, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, University of California at Santa Barbara, Carnegie Mellon University, the Electric Power Research Institute, the Energy Modeling Forum, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Florida International University, George Mason University, Lehman Brothers, University of Miami, McGill University, North Carolina State University, Queens University, University of Calgary, University of Central Florida, University of Florida Tropical Research and Education Center, University of Miami, University of Montreal HEC, University of Tennessee, University of Texas, University of Wyoming.
 

TEACHING EXPERIENCE

Environmental Economics   (Eco 345) at Department of Economics, University of Miami, 2009, 2010, 2011. Undergraduate elective course.

Managerial Economics   (Eco 691, Eco 685) at Department of Economics, University of Miami, 2004, 2005, 2012-2015. MBA level course.

Graduate Macroeconomic Theory   (Eco 521, 621, 603) at Department of Economics, University of Miami, 1998-2013, at University of California at Santa Barbara, 1997-1998. Ph.D. level courses.

Monetary Theory and Policy   (Eco 403) at Department of Economics, University of Miami, 1999-2004, 2007-2012, at Carnegie Mellon University spring 1995. Undergraduate elective course.  

Principles of Macroeconomics   (Eco 212) at Department of Economics, University of Miami, 1999-2004, 2006, 2010-2013.  Undergraduate level courses.

Environmental Cost-Benefit Analysis (ESM 245) at Department of Environmental Science and Management, University of California Santa Barbara, 1996.  Masters level elective course.

Environmental Management and Regulation (ESM 204) at Department of Environmental Science and Management, University of California Santa Barbara, 1996.  Masters level required course in Environmental Economics.

Graduate Seminar in Environmental Economics (ECON594ER) at Department of Economics, University of California Santa Barbara, 1996; Seminar Ph.D. level course.

Public Finance at Graduate School of Industrial Administration, Carnegie Mellon University, 1995.  Undergraduate elective course.

Intermediate Macroeconomics at Graduate School of Industrial Administration, Carnegie Mellon University, 1991-1994.  Intermediate level undergraduate course.
 

EDITORIAL ACTIVITIES

Conference Organization

Program Committee, AERE Summer Conference, 2011-2013, 2015.

Discussant/Panel Discussant

Panel Discussant: Research Frontiers in the Economics of Climate Change, Stanford University, 2015.

Discussant: Fourteenth Occasional Workshop on Environmental and Resource Economics, 2013.

Discussant: National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute, 2012.

Discussant: Uncertainty and Learning in the Management of Environmental and Resource Economics, University of California at Santa Barbara, 2009

Panel Discussant: Models and Monetary Policy: Research in the Tradition of Dale Henderson, Richard Porter, and Peter Tinsley, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, 2004

Discussant: National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute, 1998.

Referee

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Review, Agricultural Economics, BE Journals in Economic Analysis and Policy, BE Journals in Macroeconomics, BE Journals in Theoretical Economics, Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Climate Change Economics, Climate Change Letters, Climate Policy, Climatic Change, Contemporary Economic Policy, Ecological Economics, Economics Bulletin, Economic Journal, Economic Theory, Economics Letters, Energy Journal, Energy Policy, Environmental and Ecological Statistics, Environmental Research and Public Health, Environmental and Resource Economics, European Economic Review, Geophysical Research Letters, International Economic Review, Journal of Agriculture and Resource Economics, Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Journal of Economic Theory, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Journal of Environmental Management, Journal of the European Economics Association, Journal of Policy Reform, Journal of Population Economics, Journal of Public Economics, Journal of the Royal Society Interface, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Natural Hazards Review, Nature: Climate Change, Optimal Control Applications and Methods, Resource and Energy Economics, Review of Economic Dynamics, Review of Economic Studies, Southern Economic Journal, Weather, Economics, and Society, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Science Foundation.

DISSERTATION SUPERVISION

Dissertation Supervision

Augustine Nelson, Sherry Bartz, Zhuo Tan, Luke Fitzpatrick.

Dissertation Committees

Aijun Besio, Jiangze Bian, Lygia Lobo, Ana Maria Vallina, Yue Xue, Ayeisha Brinson, Zhigang Feng, Liang Zhou.